Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity Situation October - December 2022 and Projections for January - March 2023 and April - June 2023
RELEASE DATE
13.12.2022
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.10.2022 > 30.06.2023

Key
results


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


In the period October - December 2022, about 5.6 million people across Somalia are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among these, 1,5 million people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 214,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In the period between January and March 2023, the number of people facing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) levels of acute food insecurity are expected to increase up to 6. 4 million, of which 1.9 million will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 322,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Following the commendable response efforts of humanitarian actors and local communities, the food insecurity and acute malnutrition situation has not reached IPC Phase 5 Famine levels in October - December 2022. The underlying crisis however has not improved and even more appalling outcomes are only temporarily averted. Prolonged extreme conditions have resulted in massive population displacement and excess cumulative deaths.

Amid anticipated reduction in funding for humanitarian assistance in crucial sectors from April 2023 onwards, approximately 8.3 million people across Somalia, about half the country’s population, are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2023. Among these, 2.7 million people are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 727,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). During this period, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay region and in Mogadishu. These population groups are already experiencing very high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality.

According to the country-wide IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis conducted in August 2022, the total estimated acute malnutrition burden for Somalia through July 2023 is approximately 1.8 million children, including 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished.

In addition to the projected Famine (IPC Phase 5) in three areas in April-June 2023, several areas and population groups in central and southern Somalia are at risk of Famine, namely: Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow.

The level of assistance in most sectors has increased in recent months and is expected to allow a sustained response through March 2023, with humanitarian food assistance in particular currently reaching about 5.8 million people. However, a significant scale down in humanitarian food assistance is expected from April. Moreover, inadequate levels of funding, coverage and outreach in health, WASH and nutrition programmes, which are critical to avert a famine, are also expected.

The conclusions above are based on the latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Famine Risk Analyses conducted in November 2022 by technical experts drawn from the government, United Nations agencies, NGOs and technical partners, with the support of the IPC Global Support Unit.


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