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Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

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Minnesota's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Keith Ellison (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+26
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Minnesota's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Minnesota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Minnesota, held elections in 2018.

On June 5, 2018, incumbent Rep. Keith Ellison (D) announced that he would not seek re-election in 2018, leaving the seat open.[1]


Minnesota's 5th Congressional District includes portions of Anoka, Hennepin and Ramsey counties.[2]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Ilhan Omar defeated Jennifer Zielinski in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/ilhan_omar_resize.jpg
Ilhan Omar (D)
 
78.0
 
267,703
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Jennifer_Zielinski.png
Jennifer Zielinski (R)
 
21.7
 
74,440
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
1,215

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 343,358
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/ilhan_omar_resize.jpg
Ilhan Omar
 
48.2
 
65,237
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kelliher.JPG
Margaret Kelliher
 
30.4
 
41,156
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/PatriciaRay1.jpg
Patricia Torres Ray
 
13.0
 
17,629
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/L3LbmUjR_400x400.jpg
Jamal Abdulahi
 
3.7
 
4,984
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Champion.JPG
Bobby Joe Champion
 
2.8
 
3,831
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Frank_Drake_DFL_Candidate_for_US_Congress_MN_CD5.jpg
Frank Nelson Drake Candidate Connection
 
1.8
 
2,480

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 135,317
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Jennifer Zielinski defeated Christopher Chamberlin and Bob Carney Jr. in the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Jennifer_Zielinski.png
Jennifer Zielinski
 
56.5
 
8,680
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Christopher_Chamberlin.jpg
Christopher Chamberlin
 
32.5
 
4,999
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BobCarney3.png
Bob Carney Jr.
 
11.0
 
1,688

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 15,367
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+26, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 26 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Minnesota's 5th Congressional District the 39th most Democratic nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[4]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ilhan Omar Democratic Party $1,084,183 $1,029,354 $54,829 As of December 31, 2018
Jennifer Zielinski Republican Party $23,355 $22,755 $600 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Keith Ellison (D) defeated Frank Nelson Drake (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Ellison defeated Lee Bauer and Gregg Iverson in the Democratic primary on August 9, 2016.[5][6]

U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 69.1% 249,964
     Republican Frank Drake 22.3% 80,660
     Legal Marijuana Now Dennis Schuller 8.5% 30,759
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 499
Total Votes 361,882
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State


U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 91.7% 40,380
Gregg Iverson 4.3% 1,887
Lee Bauer 4% 1,757
Total Votes 44,024
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

2014

See also: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Keith Ellison (D) defeated Doug Daggett (R) and Lee Bauer (IND) in the general election.

U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 70.8% 167,079
     Republican Doug Daggett 24% 56,577
     Independence Lee Bauer 5.1% 12,001
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 353
Total Votes 236,010
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[7]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.

Trifecta status

  • Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Minnesota elections, 2018

Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Minnesota
 MinnesotaU.S.
Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
Asian:4.4%5.1%
Native American:1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,492$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.4% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.9% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.0% 7.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.1% Republican Party John McCain 43.8% 10.3%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 3.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.5% 2.4%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Al Franken 53.2% Republican Party Mike McFadden 42.9% 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 65.2% Republican Party Kurt Bills 30.5% 34.7%
2008 Democratic Party Al Franken 41.99% Republican Party Norm Coleman 41.98% 0.01%
2006 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 58.1% Republican Party Mark Kennedy 37.9% 20.2%
2002 Republican Party Norm Coleman 49.5% Democratic Party Walter Mondale 47.3% 2.2%
2000 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 48.8% Republican Party Rod Grams 43.3% 5.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.

Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 50.1% Republican Party Jeff Johnson 44.5% 5.6%
2010 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 43.6% Republican Party Tom Emmer 43.2% 0.4%
2006 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 46.7% Democratic Party Mike Hatch 45.7% 1.0%
2002 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 44.4% Democratic Party Roger Moe 36.5% 7.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Minnesota 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2014 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2012 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2010 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2002 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2000 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R I I I I R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R D D
House D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ StarTribune, "As Ellison joins AG race, DFL hopefuls line up to replace him in Congress," June 5, 2018
  2. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings," accessed June 1, 2016
  6. ↑ Politico, "Minnesota House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
  7. ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
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Minnesota's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Tom Emmer (R)
District 7
District 8
Democratic Party (6)
Republican Party (4)

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